Happy Wednesday, readers.
As things escalate between Russia and Ukraine, many big names on Wall Street aren't bracing for a lasting negative impact on the market. Meanwhile, there's a quiet consensus among financiers that 2022 will be a brutal year amid a tectonic shift in economic policy.
Let's jump in.
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1. Prominent Wall Street gurus don't seem to be sweating the Ukraine crisis. Markets have already priced in "a lot of the bad news", according to Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson. In a Tuesday note, he wrote that de-escalation could spur a 5% rally in the stock market.
Similarly, JPMorgan said investors should ignore gloomy stock market predictions, as it doesn't expect geopolitical flare-ups to last long. Billionaire Mark Cuban echoed this sentiment.
Fundstrat's Tom Lee, meanwhile, advised investors not to sell during the "panic" because he expects stocks to bounce back in the latter half of 2022. Stocks often fall in the run-up to an invasion, then surge when the incursion itself occurs, he said.
Legendary investor Warren Buffet, for his part, says he avoids investing in Russia because he's faced threats of violence and asset seizure there. He places more merit in valuation and management than geopolitical risks when he makes investment decisions.
Goldman Sachs analysts have a more dire warning, and are forecasting a potential 6% downturn in the S&P 500 and a 9% fall in the Nasdaq if there's outright conflict in Ukraine and punitive sanctions in Russia.
In other news:
2. US stock futures are edging cautiously higher. Western sanctions on Moscow have added to modest risk appetite and weighed on safe havens. Here's what's happening on the markets today.
3. On deck today: Chesapeake Energy, Sinclair Broadcast Group, and Bath & Body Works, all reporting.
4. An inflation-fund manager who's beaten 97% of peers in 2021 and 2022 shared his secrets to success. David Schasler's inflation-focused ETF has crushed competitors. He explained why bitcoin is a good hedge — and broke down 18 ways investors can handle price surges.
5. FTX has set up a crypto gaming unit to help Web3-curious publishers bring NFTs to their games. FTX wallets will allow players to own the digital assets they've earned, and even transfer their investments outside the games, according to the company. Here's what to know.
6. The Fed shouldn't let the Russia-Ukraine crisis impact the pace of tightening, a Wharton finance professor said. Jeremy Seigel told CNBC it would be a "big mistake" if the crisis impacted the Fed's efforts to combat inflation. He also said the Fed was "way behind the curve" in its effort to curb rising prices.
7. A 33-year-old woman was swindled out of $300,000 worth of bitcoin after a scam Hinge romance. She thought the funds were going into a legitimate crypto exchange — but the assets went directly into the scammer's wallet and he disappeared.
8. Elite investors on Wall Street say privately the market is about to undergo a cataclysmic shift. From short sellers to value investors, a quiet consensus has formed: 2022 is going to be very, very ugly for the stock market.
9. Title insurance swipes $20 billion from home buyers each year. Some say that these insurance quotes feel like they're pulled out of thin air. Read Insider's full report on the hidden cost that's built into every single mortgage.
10. Last year, 140,000 Americans walked out of work to strike for higher pay and safer workplaces. Amid the new era of near-record quit rates and increasing wages, thousands got what they were demanding.
Curated by Phil Rosen in New York. (Feedback or tips? Email [email protected] or tweet @philrosenn.)
